Solar-cell factory at the end of the second half of the rise and fall offer into key operational
German solar subsidy announced that the latest case, the solar industry believes that actual demand will start in Germany, the most worthy of observation that is the price trend in July, once the price is not so down, over the end of July, the majority of companies believe that the price of solar is unlikely to again bargain, solar-cell factory in the second half is expected to sit back and relax. However, if the price appears loose in mid-July, the economy's trend will test a low quarter by quarter.
Previously by the Bank can not estimate the rate of lead lending freeze, and the investment rate of return (IRR) and difficult to estimate the system case of delay, all because of expectations of the new German assistance was announced after the official launch, the solar industry said that the July price trend will also be a reference to the most important indicator of the second half.
Solar industry said that the European market in the most mature of the German solar industry supply chain influence high in Germany to launch a new subsidy cases before the majority of German industry is actively towards non-German system market, but still retains a considerable inventory ratio, followed by Germany's decision to wait after a new case to complement the operation, which also includes a number of international module plant in Germany, large warehouses, waiting till after the case was sold in Germany.
Once in Germany under the third quarter after cutting 13% of the subsidy rates, market demand in Germany fell more sharply than expected, estimated German industry and within the international plant inventory positions, will be forced down to non-German stock market to reduce inventory This will lead to an overall impact on the market again, especially some quotes, I am afraid to face the impact of a single grab bargain.
Once the price started to decline in July, the price estimated in the second half will follow continued to decline. While Germany will be cut in the fourth quarter, 16% lower subsidy rates, but rates for the third quarter with only a difference of 3 percentage points, if prices continue to fall, then consumers will have expectations, after all, prices decline follow the installation costs down enough to make up for season 3 and 4 the gap between the subsidy, which will lead to the actual needs of the action falls in the fourth quarter.
However, if the demand spread to Germany than to imagine a small, German industry without strong inroads into non-German system market, or non-German market is in fact a considerable amount of appetite enough to absorb the fall of German industry goods, grab a single, multi-supply and demand in the adjustments, so that prices will remain the some stability.
Solar industry analysis, the current price level, if you can last until the end of July, the probability estimates in the second half again haggling is not high, because the market adjustment mechanism is an effective response to the current price level has been able to light up market share 5 percent of the German market after the subsidies cut under the impact, people expect falling prices is difficult psychological health, but also must consider the fourth quarter to cut 16 percent subsidy on the next, hoping to take action to install the very high government subsidies chances will increase. 4 quarters battery industry to "sit back and relax", no longer worried about price competition issues.
Taiwan-based industry, including Motech, Yu Jing, Sun Division, new solar, and other benefits through, part of the solar cell factory in the third quarter from the spot market price per watt in the second quarter jumped to $ 1.4 $ 1.35 or more, mainly due to from Taiwan-based solar cell industry by non-German markets, including Italy, France, Czech Republic District orders blessing, the recent release of Japanese single most obvious Outsourcing orders.
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